Is Covid Declining with or without Vaccination?


Since March 2020, misinformation has become a collective game. On the one hand, the government with its masks and its media, on the other hand, those who are labeled as conspiracy theorists and predict the apocalypse on some specially created communication media. In between are public data, sometimes difficult to access. Can Google save us?

How Many New Cases of COVID-19 per Country?

That’s the bet I made when I searched the site away from the comments. First, I looked at the data on the trend of new cases in each of the countries listed, and second, the number of people vaccinated. I wanted to find out if there was a correlation between vaccination with vaccines and the development of the pandemic. My method and its results are described below.

Going to Google. For example, when I search for India, I get this Page:

Using the “Country” tab, in this case India, I can access data for all countries in the world and follow the curves of the evolution of the epidemic from day to day.

I therefore thought it would be interesting to observe the differences between the most and least vaccinated countries.

What is the Vaccination Coverage Rate per Country?

In the same way, again using Google, I search for Vaccination coverage by country and arrive at this Page:

 

The website points out that the data shown here is provided by Google and automatically updated several times a day. So let’s trust it!

We can go through these two sites in different countries and look at the evolution of the pandemic since March 2020 in one and the vaccination coverage in the other.

From these two data sources, I randomly selected 5 surveys in the most vaccinated countries and 5 surveys in the least vaccinated countries. Using my Excel spreadsheet, I was able to create the following montage. You can also do this for the countries of your choice. Below is the result.

At first sight, the number of cases is clearly decreasing almost everywhere, and it may be surprising that there is no difference between vaccinated and non-vaccinated countries. The conspiracy theorists will say that this is proof of the uselessness of vaccines, the governments will say that this proves nothing, quite the opposite! (?)

Although it is difficult to know the truth, the above curves seem to indicate that there is no correlation between the vaccination rate and the development of the epidemic.

Two extreme Examples:

On April 23, 2020, the epidemic in SINGAPORE (population less than 6 million) peaks at 1000 cases per day over an average period of 7 days. On September 4, 2020, without vaccination, this 7-day average dropped to 40 cases per day. Vaccination will begin on December 27, 2020 with Pfizer. New cases remain stable below 40 infections per day through July 2021. On October 29, 2021, in SINGAPORE, which is more than 80% vaccinated, there is an average of 3,777 new cases per day over 7 days and 4,248 new cases on October 29, 2021 alone!

In MADAGASKAR, with its population of 27 million, vaccination coverage was less than 1% on October 20, 2021. On July 26, 2020, an initial epidemic peak reported an average of 321 new cases per day for 7 days. Between mid-October 2020 and mid-March 2021, this 7-day average stabilized between 50 and 0 daily cases. A new peak is observed on April 20, 2021, with the average number of daily cases increasing to over 600 before declining to 10 in early July 2021. On October 29, 2021, there is only one new case per day on a 7-day average in Madagascar without vaccine, out of a population of 27 million.

Summary

Looking at the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in each country using these curves since March 2020 and comparing them with vaccination coverage in the same countries, it is incorrect to claim that vaccination is controlling the epidemic. Claims to the contrary by the French government and others appear to be Fake News!